strummer a écrit :mon beau-père est revenu hier de charleroi
strummer a écrit :mon beau-père est revenu hier de charleroi
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
Blackcorduroy a écrit :Dieu merci il ne passe que chez les sous-developpés.
El Nino a écrit :Blackcorduroy a écrit :Dieu merci il ne passe que chez les sous-developpés.
Ce gars en gras commence sérieusement à m'énerver. Déjà qu'il n'y a "que" 500 morts dans le Sud-Pérou "grâce" à lui.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...
1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
DEAN IN A FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 59 MPH.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
strummer a écrit :J'aime ce Dean
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