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WTNT34 KNHC 210604
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
911 MB...26.90 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
thefrenchconnection a écrit :A voir sur cette animation, DEAN est en train de toucher le sol du Mexique avec des rafales de 314 km/h
El Nino a écrit :Voilà, c'est officiel : un avion de reconnaissance vient de mesurer 65 noeuds, correspondant à 120 km/h autour de l'oeil, pression à 993mb.
Nous avons donc le deuxième ouragan de la saison, et il semble être pour le Honduras.
mike baroud a écrit :c'est quand meme con pour ces pays sous développés. faudrait qu'il pense a déménager
Patrick Bateman a écrit :Vu le niveau qu'on est tranquillement en train d'atteindre, il va falloir lacher un peu les américains et se concentrer un peu sur notre propre connerie, parce que franchement on fait pas beaucoup mieux.
Blackcorduroy a écrit :Patrick Bateman a écrit :Vu le niveau qu'on est tranquillement en train d'atteindre, il va falloir lacher un peu les américains et se concentrer un peu sur notre propre connerie, parce que franchement on fait pas beaucoup mieux.
pas mieux
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
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